While history points to likely Democratic victories in the upcoming midterm elections, the numbers show a very different story that does not bode well for the left’s chances in peeling back the right’s hold on power next year.
recent poll numbers (yes, I know, polls can only mean so much and are
many times, wrong, though other times speak to very real trends
underway) and recent fundraising statistics reveal a troubling reality
for the Democrats.
off, 43% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy,
according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll put out last Sunday. Jobs
continue to be added at healthy rates and for all of Trump’s faults, he
knows business and can likely steer the economy with more than enough
competence. Employers have added 863,000 jobs
during Trump’s first five full months in office and though a recession
is possibly to come during his tenure as president, he will still govern
a nation emphasizing employment growth via business creation buoyed by deregulation.
the Democrats still do not stand for anything other than being the
anti-Trump party. They have no agenda, no message, and give voters
little reason to vote for them. Only 37% of Americans say the Democratic
Party “stands for something,” while 52% say it just stands against
Trump, per the same ABC/WaPo poll. The left is leaderless at the moment
in the post-Obama age and with Hillary Clinton in denial about why she
lost the party is still not coming to terms with last year’s upset and
are therefore making no moves to remedy it.
While there is still plenty of time
left until the 2018 midterms, the Democrats’ voters still lack
sufficient enthusiasm. The difference between people who are voting to
oppose Trump and those voting to support Trump is 4 points, compared to
10 points opposing Obama in 2014 and 14 points opposing Bush in 2006.
Voter enthusiasm seems identical for the pro-Trump and anti-Trump wings,
however, the Trump crowd are the ones that show up to vote, despite the
media’s attempt to tell a different story.
perceptions of the Dems also has changed little over the last 12
months. Even during the Trump age, 48% of American voters have a
negative view of the Democratic Party right now, according to a recent
Bloomberg News poll. 49% in December saw them in a negative light and
47% last August. And they don’t appear to be making any significant
changes to alter that perception.
base is still strong and will surely remain that way throughout his
presidency. The support among Republicans matches the third-highest
approval among a president’s own party during the first half of the
first year of a new president in more than 60 years, per Gallup.
Furthermore, recent fundraising trends spell further doom for the Democrats.
The Republican National Committee unveiled record fundraising in May,
announcing $10.8 million raised in May, a new post-presidential record,
and $61.9 million overall in 2017.
Democratic National Committee on the other hand, had their worst
fundraising month since 2003, taking in only $4.29 million.
Democrats should buckle up and change their ways fast if they are to
make any difference in Washington. Otherwise, Trump will have a
Republican majority in both houses of Congress for the next eight years.
And Democrats will remain on their downward spiral until the next