Fed's tightening cycle scenario involves risky bet on inflation

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/21/us-usa-fed-inflation-idUSKCN0QQ0BR20150821

Federal Reserve officials planning to lift interest rates as soon as September have been encouraged by solid U.S. jobs growth, but inflation holds the key to how far the Fed can go in moving rates away from zero.
Fed officials have said that they do not need to see prices accelerate to start raising rates after six years near zero, and "lift-off" appears nearly ordained by a 5.3 percent unemployment rate, the lowest since April of 2008.
But it would be a leap of faith to move any further without proof that prices are on the rise, say current and former officials familiar with the central bank's debate and the current state of inflation research.