Monday, April 15, 2013

Argentine Inflation May Be Over 100%

http://marketmonetarist.com/2013/04/12/argentinas-inflation-might-already-have-surpassed-100/
Officially inflation in Argentina is around 11%. However, anybody who has just a minimum of knowledge about the Argentine economy knows that the Argentine inflation numbers are as real as Mickey Mouse. Inflation in Argentina is not 11%, but much higher.
According to an alternative measure of inflation the so-called Congressional Index, which is a price index based on private surveys inflation is more likely around 24-25%.

But inflation is likely even higher than that. Surveys of inflation expectations indicate that inflation is running around 30%.

However, I think that it might be even worse than that. One thing that is strongly distorting all of these measures is the extensive price controls that have been put in place in recent years in Argentina. These controls undoubtedly have “helped” curb inflation. However, the underlying reasons for the sharp increase in inflation cannot be removed by draconian price controls. It might have postponed inflation from rising further in the short-run, but sooner or later the underlying inflationary pressures will be translated into actual inflation.[...]

There is no doubt that inflation has accelerated further in the last couple of months and this is clearly confirmed by my calculation of the PPP [purchasing power parity] implied price level. Hence, over the past three months the PPP implied price level has increased by an annualized rate of 127%!


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