30-Jan (USAGOLD) — Gold begins the week on a mildly defensive footing
as last week’s assurances that a Greek PSI deal was nigh proved
unfounded once again. In fact, the realization that Greece will now need
€145 bln for its second bailout, rather than the currently proposed
€130 bln and a German proposal that Greece cede its budget authority to
an EU czar may well leave the two sides of the negotiation further apart
than ever.
The rising chances that Greece will simply have to default on its
outstanding debt keeps 10-year yields elevated near 35%. Meanwhile,
Portuguese 10-year yields surged to record highs above 17% on the belief
that if there is no resolution to be had for Greece, then Portugal is
probably next in line for a disorderly default.
The uptick in risk aversion associated with the rise in uncertainty
has weighed on the euro, lifting the dollar in the process. This has in
turn knocked gold off the new 6-week highs established on Friday.
However, the yellow metal already seems to have found support and is
trading more than $10 off its intraday low.
EU leaders will meet today to discuss moving Europe toward a tighter
fiscal union. However, the periphery seems disinclined to cede
additional sovereignty to the core, while the core seems disinclined to
throw good money after bad without some control over what they perceive
as periphery profligacy.
• US personal income +0.5% in Dec, above market expectations of +0.4%. PCE flat on expectations of +0.1%.
• Eurozone economic confidence improves to 93.4 in Jan, below market expectations of 93.8, vs negative revised 92.8 in Dec.
• Eurozone consumer confidence ticks lower in Jan to -20.7; industrial confidence steady at -7.2; services improves to -0.6; business climate better at -0.21.
• Germany CPI – preliminary falls to -0.4% in Jan, in-line with expectations, vs +0.7% in Dec; decelerates to 2.0% y/y
• Spain Q4 GDP (sa) – preliminary -0.3% q/q, in-line with expectations, vs 0.0% q/q in Q3.
• South Korea current account (nsa) narrowed to $3.96 bln in Dec, vs negative revised $4.56 bln in Nov.
• Taiwan unemployment rate (sa) moderates to 4.22% in Dec, vs 4.3% in Nov.
• Eurozone economic confidence improves to 93.4 in Jan, below market expectations of 93.8, vs negative revised 92.8 in Dec.
• Eurozone consumer confidence ticks lower in Jan to -20.7; industrial confidence steady at -7.2; services improves to -0.6; business climate better at -0.21.
• Germany CPI – preliminary falls to -0.4% in Jan, in-line with expectations, vs +0.7% in Dec; decelerates to 2.0% y/y
• Spain Q4 GDP (sa) – preliminary -0.3% q/q, in-line with expectations, vs 0.0% q/q in Q3.
• South Korea current account (nsa) narrowed to $3.96 bln in Dec, vs negative revised $4.56 bln in Nov.
• Taiwan unemployment rate (sa) moderates to 4.22% in Dec, vs 4.3% in Nov.
http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2012/01/30/morning-snapshot-196/
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