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Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Spain Is Following Greece In Its Path To Bankruptcy: Avoid Financials - Seeking Alpha

Spain Is Following Greece In Its Path To Bankruptcy: Avoid Financials - Seeking Alpha

"The average maturity of Spanish real estates is 28 years (2007). Let's take this number for further calculations. For example: 30 year Spanish bond yields are 7% now, and will likely go to 8% the next month. We can calculate the loss from Nomura's bond price vs. yield graph....
For a rise in yield from 7% to 8%, the decline in price of the MBS is approximately 10%. Similarly, a rise in yield from 7% to 10% is a decline in price of 20%. For the 400 billion euro in MBS, this is a decline of 80 billion euro (20% of 400 billion is 80 billion).
This means that a 3%-4% uptick in Spanish bond yields is enough to render the 100 billion euro bailout useless. Imagine what would happen when 30 year Spanish bond yields were to go through the roof with let's say 25% for 30 year bond yields, like in Greece right now. The losses would be immense."

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