Reality check: is the US housing market really recovering? – Institutional Risk Analyst
One of the more amusing and even troubling developments in recent weeks
is the general consensus that the housing market is recovering. Whether
you are a consumer, a media maven or merely a lowly investor, the
common view now seems to be that housing is getting ready to bounce back
to 2005 levels. Would that it was true.
To borrow a phrase from our friend and fishing companion Josh Rosner of
Graham Fisher & Co in New York, there are now more headwinds than
tail winds affecting the US housing market. Chief among them is the
reduction in the number of potential home buyers. While a number of
exuberant private equity funds have been soaking up the excess supply of
housing in markets such as AZ, FL and CA, this to fuel rental
strategies, the supply of qualified individuals with the capacity to buy
and actually occupy a home has fallen dramatically.
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