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Friday, November 02, 2012

Bernanke's money printing is clearly hitting the system


Bernanke's money printing is clearly hitting the system. Another early stage manipulated boom (or mini-boom) is on its way. Keep in mind that although the strength in the unemployment numbers is not outsized, employment is a lagging indicator. Thus, any strength is a positive for another uptick in the business cycle.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment
rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported this morning. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care,
and retail trade.

The civilian labor force rose by 578,000 to 155.6 million in October, and the labor
force participation rate edged up to 63.8 percent. Total employment rose by 410,000
over the month. The employment-population ratio was essentially unchanged at 58.8
percent, following an increase of 0.4 percentage point in September.

These stronger numbers came in, even as the expected adjustment for part-time workers was made for the September numbers. The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons fell by 269,000 to 8.3 million in October, partially offsetting an increase of 582,000 in September.

In October, employment rose in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade.

Professional and business services added 51,000 jobs in October, with gains in
services to buildings and dwellings (+13,000) and in computer systems design (+7,000).
Temporary help employment changed little in October and has shown little net change
over the past 3 months. Employment in professional and business services has grown by
1.6 million since its most recent low point in September 2009.

Health care added 31,000 jobs in October. Job gains continued in ambulatory health
care services (+25,000) and hospitals (+6,000). Over the past year, employment in
health care has risen by 296,000.

Retail trade added 36,000 jobs in October, with gains in motor vehicles and parts dealers
(+7,000), and in furniture and home furnishings stores (+4,000). Retail trade has added
82,000 jobs over the past 3 months, with most of the gain occurring in motor vehicles
and parts dealers, clothing and accessories stores, and miscellaneous store retailers.

Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to trend up (+28,000) over the month.
This industry has added 811,000 jobs since a recent low point in January 2010, with
most of the gain occurring in food services.

Employment in construction edged up in October. The gain was concentrated in specialty
trade contractors (+17,000).

Manufacturing employment changed little in October. On net, manufacturing employment
has shown little change since April.

Mining lost 9,000 jobs in October, with most of the decline occurring in support
activities for mining. Since May of this year, employment in mining has decreased
by 17,000.

Employment in other major industries, including wholesale trade, transportation and
warehousing, information, financial activities, and government, showed little change
over the month.

Most interesting, the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +142,000 to +192,000, and the change for September was revised from +114,000 to +148,000.

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