Sunday, July 28, 2013

"The Taper Is Coming" - What Wall Street Thinks

http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476936

But when, and by how, much does Wall Street see the end of tapering, and what is the sell-side consensus? The list below summarizes the current view by bank.
  • Goldman – Sept taper, – $20b in Tsys
  •     JPMorgan – Sept taper
  •     Credit Susse – Sept taper, -$20b via -$10b MBS and -$10b Tsys
  •     BNP – Dec taper w Sept’14 ending; – $10b ea Tsys/MBS; poss less MBS/more UST’s
  •     Barclays – Sept taper of – $10b Tsys/- $5b MBS, end buys in Mar’14
  •     Bank of America – Dec taper but ‘sizable chance’ of Sept
  •     Deutsche Bank – Sept taper, risk of Dec
  •     Pierpont- Sept taper;
  •     BMO – Sept taper;
  •     RBC – Sept taper likely
  •     Citi- Sept announce, start taper with Oct 1 buys to $60-65b, stop in mid’14
  •     ING – Sept taper in Tsys;
  •     BTM-UFJ – Sept taper
  •     ScotiaBank – Dec taper
  •     Jefferies – Oct announce taper, go to smaller buys in Nov
  •     Nomura – Sept announce taper, begin taper in Q4
  •     Cantor Fitzgerald -first taper in Sept, of Tsys -$10B and MBS -$5B
  • Consensus: September tapering start with ~$20 billion in initial reduction.

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