http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2013/10/02/economist-us-labor-market-recovery.html?
University of Central Florida economist Sean Snaith has this to say about the current labor market recovery: It’s a fraud.
That’s because there’s more to assessing economic recovery than just
monthly payroll job gains and a declining unemployment rate, he said.
“You need to look at the number of jobs being created in the context
of the potential number of workers in the U.S. economy,” Snaith said.
“The gap between payroll employment and the Congressional Budget Office estimates of the potential number of workers in the U.S. economy is pretty darn scary right now.”
If payroll job growth were to persist at the average level of the
past three jobs reports and increase at just 148,000 jobs per month, it
would take until December 2021 for employment to reach its CBO estimated
potential, he added.
In his 2013 third-quarter U.S. forecast,
Snaith explains that by just focusing on the unemployment rate, many
analysts erroneously are predicting a fast recovery that’s simply not
there yet.
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