Hilsenrath: An Important Jobs Report for Fed Officials Eyeing Rate Increases - Real Time Economics

 Hilsenrath: An Important Jobs Report for Fed Officials Eyeing Rate Increases - Real Time Economics - WSJ

Since the Fed launched its third round of bond purchases in September 2012, payroll gains have averaged 223,000 per month. That’s a good benchmark for the kind of increase that would likely strike Fed officials as quite healthy. * * *
[The jobless rate] doesn’t need to drop much to get to 5.4%, bringing it closer to the Fed’s rough estimate of a full employment economy, with a jobless rate between 5% and 5.2%. Officials will also be looking for continued declines in broader measures of unemployment that include part-time and discouraged workers. * * *
Average hourly earnings have risen every month since August 2013 by between 1.8% and 2.2% from a year earlier. They haven’t been above 2.3% since August 2009. A move above that range would build Fed confidence, though many officials would likely want to see it confirmed in subsequent data before making too much of it.