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Thursday, May 07, 2015

Prepare for 'triple taper tantrum' in 2016, says Morgan Stanley

Prepare for 'triple taper tantrum' in 2016, says Morgan Stanley
| Reuters

Investors spooked by the "taper tantrum" of 2013, when global markets took fright at the U.S. Federal Reserve's first hint that it might taper its monetary expansion policy, take note: 2016 could be the year of the "triple taper tantrum".
That's the prediction of analysts at Morgan Stanley, who argue that the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan might all taper their super-loose monetary policies next year if growth and inflation across the three regions pick up enough.
The world's three biggest central banks are at different stages of post-crisis management, so it's a bold call. But it shows just how much markets have turned since the start of the year, when deflation was their worst fear.
"What is unknown is whether the economic situation will pan out as we see it," said Manoj Pradhan, global economist at Morgan Stanley in London and co-author of the report. "We've had a few surprises recently, but the trajectory of monetary policy and growth is leading in that direction."

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