January US durable goods orders +4.9% vs +2.9% expected

• Prior -5.0%
• Ex-transport +1.8% vs +0.3% exp
• Prior ex-transport -1.0%
• Cap goods orders non-def ex-air +3.9% vs +1.0% exp m/m.
• Prior cap goods orders non-def ex-air -4.3%
• Cap goods shipments non-def ex-air -0.4% vs -0.5% exp m/m.
• Prior cap goods shipments non-def ex-air +0.2%

 The non-defense capital goods order ex-aircraft is the key line in the report. The previous report was the worst in 10 months but this series has been weak for a long time. The average reading over the prior 12 months was -0.6% m/m. Outside of recessions, durable goods have never been so weak.