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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Fed's Evans: Yellen laid out all the right issues yesterday

  • Global risk is higher than December
  • Accommodative policy continues to be appropriate
  • If data is as expected, still see two hikes
  • Dot plot would adjust if data came in stronger
  • Eventually we want to get rates up to normal
  • Threshold pretty high for hike at April meeting, but it is a live meeting
  • Don't want to get ahead of ourselves with two quick rate hikes
  • Nervous about trade numbers
  • Not seriously concerned about Chinese hard landing
  • Could move in June on continued labor market gains

It's interesting that he points to the jobs market in June. Yellen and others have put more emphasis on inflation, wages, business investment, trade and the consumer.


More:        
  • I don't think inflation is going to get out of hand
  • US economy will warrant two hikes this year
  • I'm a little nervous about business investment this year
  • Looking for 2-2.5% growth this year   
  • Global policy divergence means Fed doesn't have to raise rates 'as much'

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