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Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Zeno’s Paradox

https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook

But back to the 1/3 math thing. It’s there that I find the average lay and even many professional investors still thinking and managing assets at the grade school level. The childlike “teeter totter” principle, for instance which couldn’t be simpler in its visualization of bond prices going up when interest rates go down, produces foggy-eyed reactions from a majority of non-professionals, and from a few supposed experts as well. And too, the concept of longer maturities inducing more risk for bond holders seems to stump many. Heaven forbid the introduction of the more refined concepts of duration and forward yield curves as well as the extension into stocks with the addition of an equity “risk premium” and how it might be calculated. “Forget about the math,” many investors really seem to say – “let’s stick to the old Will Rogers adage, ‘If a stock is going to go up – buy it. If it ain’t going up – don’t buy it’!”

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