The End Of The Euro: A Survivor’s Guide | The Baseline Scenario
In every economic crisis there comes a moment of clarity. In Europe
soon, millions of people will wake up to realize that the
euro-as-we-know-it is gone. Economic chaos awaits them.
To understand why, first strip away your illusions. Europe’s crisis
to date is a series of supposedly “decisive” turning points that each
turned out to be just another step down a steep hill. Greece’s upcoming
election on June 17 is another such moment. While the so-called
“pro-bailout” forces may prevail in terms of parliamentary seats, some
form of new currency will soon flood the streets of Athens. It is
already nearly impossible to save Greek membership in the euro area:
depositors flee banks, taxpayers delay tax payments, and companies
postpone paying their suppliers – either because they can’t pay or
because they expect soon to be able to pay in cheap drachma.
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