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Sunday, July 08, 2012

Why Supervalu Crashed in 2012

Stock is likely to gap up at the open Tuesday July 24, after they report earnings at or above estimates, and reiterate guidance of GAAP eps $1.27-1.42.

Selloff in May was due to following factors:

1) Got bumped off S&P 500 April 30
2) An analyst downgraded it April 30
3) Market sold off big time over European debt crisis and slowing U.S. economy
4) Selling momentum and shorting above $5

Rebound from bottom $4.05 has begun, beginning with takeover speculation, due to extremely oversold valuation. Next phase of rally will be fueled by good execution and guidance affirmation, followed by renewed takeover speculation, with some analysts expecting a 50% premium above whatever the stock trades at = $7.50 if stock at $5, for example.

Also, they'll likely announce the quarterly dividend around earnings date, a little before or after July 24, restoring confidence that the dividend will remain, and reinforcing the argument that SVU belongs closer to $7 than $5.

SVU $5.05
August target = $5x trailing / forward eps $1.25 / $1.27-1.42 = $6-7



Best of luck in your trades



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