Gallup.Com - The Behavioral Economy by Dennis Jacobe: Time to Replace the Unemployment Rate
The problem is that even though the Household survey tends to be very
volatile, this decline seems to lack face-validity, particularly after
the prior month's numbers. The consensus estimate was that the
government would report that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.1%
in September. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter and seems to be
no better this quarter. The government's Establishment survey shows
there were 114,000 new jobs created in September -- very close to the
consensus of 113,000 -- and not sufficient to lower the unemployment
rate.
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