IEA Sees Oil Supply Rising as Demand Growth Slows to 2017 - Bloomberg

IEA Sees Oil Supply Rising as Demand Growth Slows to 2017 - Bloomberg

Supply growth will rise by a “robust” 9.3 million barrels a day over the next five years, the agency said. North America’s oil sands and light-tight crude will account for 40 percent of the gain, while Iraq will make up 20 percent.
The IEA cut its consumption forecast by 500,000 barrels a day from its previous five-year estimate in December. The agency also published its monthly oil market report today, keeping its 2013 forecast for oil demand growth stable. It said OPEC output fell to an eight-month low last month as sanctions hit Iranian exports more than expected.
“This mild outlook is partly deceptive, given exceptional uncertainty about the global economy and heightened regional geopolitical risks,” said the IEA, whose members comprise 28 industrialized nations.

So the combined NA unconventionals is another 3.7 million barrels a day of liquids by 2017... and if prices tank that increase all goes away as this is high cost marginal supply.