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Monday, October 01, 2012

U.S. Economy Prints 32-month Low: Recession Risks Escalate

New recession alert out:
U.S. Economy Prints 32-month Low: Recession Risks Escalate

It's been 4 months since the 3rd "Summer Swoon" in this expansion – when many commentators were trotting out recession scares and imminent collapses in the stock market. Since then the SP-500 has risen over 9%, peaking at 12% gains some weeks back. There is now an interesting divergence developing between the leading data (stock market, money supply, credit spreads etc.) that is implying positive expansion ahead and the co-incident data that is implying a drift toward possible recession. 

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