As investors know, the view of any one economist may be nice to know,
but what is more important is what has been discounted: what is
expected and how to respond to the unexpected. Even if the accuracy of
her forecast do not ensure Yellen replaces Bernanke, such an analysis
can do nothing but bolster her own gravitas.
What makes someone a good banker and regional Federal Reserve President
is not necessarily being a good forecaster. The same is true about
being a Governor of the Federal Reserve Board. These scores do not say
anything about their competence or the lack thereof. That said, I'll
probably pay a little more attention to what Williams says about
inflation, what Kocherlakota says about the labor market, and what
Dudley says about growth.
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