- I don't see anything to suggest a negative outcome for the US
- We want to eventually operate with a much smaller balance sheet
- Fed studying long-run framework for balance sheet
- Spreads in high yield have been widening since 2014, partly due to oil
- Third Avenue was an unusual fund
- We are starting early and gradually because we don't want to cause a recession
- We have considered the risk of moving too early
- Abrupt tightening is the usual reason central banks cause recessions
- This decision reflects our confidence in the US economy
- Longer term rates unlikely to move very much
- If we conclude structural factors are holding down inflation, we would take action
- We would need to see a sustained departure from 2% inflation goal
- Fed looks at range of inflation statistics
- US consumers are in healthier conditions
- Demographics point to considerable upside in housing and residential investment
- Recent growth in emerging markets have strengthened
- Strongly doubt there will be evenly spaced rate hikes
- We will be data dependent
- Main reason we lowered our PCE forecast was stronger dollar
- I don't see interpretation of inflation and models as having fundamentally changed
- All forecasting models are "not perfect"
- We may be seeing some insipient signs of wage growth
- I hate to say it's a firm trend, we've been disappointed in the past
Biggest joke of the day...GOLD.
VIX obliteration..... .engaged!
I feel like throwing up in my mouth a little bit watching this charade!
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