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Friday, February 05, 2016

Why ultra-low/negative interest rates don’t work

http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/02/negative-interest-rates-wont-you-take-me-to-funkytown/?all=1


On Friday the Bank of Japan (aka, the Japanese Fed) cut the rate on current accounts that commercial banks hold with it to minus 0.1%, adding that it will push the rate even lower if needed. Effectively, this means that banks will be charged to keep excess assets with the central bank. This move sparked a big jump in stock markets around the world. Some mistook the rise as being predicated on the assumption that negative interest rates would work to spur growth and therefore earnings and therefore stocks. This is wrong. Stocks moved because as a financial asset they became slightly more attractive than they were the day before, especially when having cash has a tangible cost, and when the same people that just took rates negative said they will take them more negative if they have to. So asset allocators did the logical thing and decided that the prospect of losing money in stocks was more attractive than the guaranty of losing it in bonds. So stocks went up.

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