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Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Fed's Evans: Sees 2016 US growth of 2.0-2.5%

  • I think the fundamentals are really quite good
  • Sees US unemployment at 4.75% by end of the year
  • Trend growth rates in US economy lower than 10 years ago
  • Lower energy prices are good for consumers
  • International sector has been a drag on US growth
Evans is singing from the choir book today rather than his usual dovish slant. The market is noticing but it might only be a matter of time until he lets something slip on inflation staying low forever.
More:            
  • 2016 economic and financial risks somewhat higher than hoped
  • 'Wait and see' approach is appropriate
  • Projected Fed hike path is 'a pretty good setting'
"I used to be sort of on the lower side of those dots. I now think the median is a pretty good setting"
It sounds more and more like Evans is no longer the major dove at the Fed.
Onto the Q&A:
  • Strong dollar is keeping US inflation down
  • Raising interest rates won't necessarily boost yield curve
  • We need interest rates to go up because the economy is stronger
  • It's clear Chinese growth decelerating

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