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Friday, April 01, 2016

About that labor force participation rate

The kneejerk reaction to the non-farm payrolls report was a stronger US dollar with EUR/USD dropping to 1.1400 from 1.1425. Shortly afterwards it recovered, in part because the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0% from 4.9%
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The reason for the rise wasn't a weak labor market but a growing labor force. Participation rose to 63.0% from 62.9%. that's the highest rate since 2014.

Now the dollar is trading near session highs vs EUR, GBP and the commodity bloc as wages take precedence.

A year ago, many at the Fed were saying the drop in labor force participation was natural and due to demographics.


I guess the population is aging in reverse now.

The Fed really doesn't have any idea what's going on with labor force participation. In 2014 Philly Fed economist Shigeru Fujita released a widely-cited paper saying the drop in participation was entirely due to aging. Fujita quietly reissued the report later said it was only 'mostly' due to aging.
Labor force participation should be one of the most predictable measures. All else equal the only thing that changes is aging and there are no surprises there. In 2007, the BLS forecast the participation rate would be above 65% in 2016.

What the Fed needs to do is be transparent. If they forecast participation then they can't move the goalposts later.

Along those lines, the Dallas Fed's Kaplan was on the wires earlier this week, saying that by 2024 labor force participation will be close to 60.5%.

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