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Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Atlanta Fed GDPNow boosts Q1 forecast to +0.6%

We get the first official reading on Q1 GDP tomorrow but after strong trade numbers earlier today, the Atlanta Fed has grown more optimistic.
The US March advance goods trade deficit was 56.9B comapared to $62.8B expected. That gave a lift to the dollar and GDP estimates.
The Atlanta Fed now sees 0.6% annualized growth compared to yesterday's estimate of +0.4%.
"After this morning's advance report on international trade in goods from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast of the contribution of net exports to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.68 percentage points to -0.45 percentage points," they write.
The current consensus GDP estimate is 0.6% but the market is likely looking for something around +0.8% after the trade numbers.

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