Economists still drinking the Fed kool-aid

• 54 of 81 economists polled see hike in June or sooner
• An overwhelming majority of economists see the Fed hiking in Q3
• Most economists see two hikes this year
• Economists see 15% probability of recession
• Q1 media growth forecast 1.2%
• 2016 growth seen at 2.0%

The Fed is forecasting two hikes this year but the market don't believe it. The Fed funds futures imply just a 15% chance of a hike in June and 14.6% chance of two hikes before year end.