http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr16/yen-yuan-USD4-16.html
Foreign exchange (FX) is a zero-sum game: if one currency weakens, another must strengthen.
Since the value of a currency is relative to other currencies, all
currencies can’t weaken together: at least one currency must strengthen
as others weaken.
That one strengthening currency has been the U.S. dollar (USD) since mid-2014.
The USD has strengthened by 20%, while the Japanese yen and the euro
weakened by 20%. Many developing-economy currencies (rand, peso, real,
etc.) have fallen off a cliff, suffering 40% to 50% (or even more)
declines against the U.S. dollar.
Why does any of this matter? Simply put, the stock market is a
monkey on a leash held by central banks–just give the leash a little
tug, and the monkey jumps. Bonds are a gorilla–harder to control, but
still manageable–but foreign exchange is King Kong, trading $5 trillion a
day and impossible to control beyond short-term manipulations.
Currencies set the underlying trend, not just for bonds and stocks, but for entire economies.
A weakening currency makes a nation’s exports cheaper in other
countries, and the theory is that expanding exports will boost the
overall economy–especially if that economy is stagnating or in
recession.
No comments:
Post a Comment