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Friday, May 27, 2016

Quick US GDP preview - What to expect

US GDP for Q1 is expected to be revised up to 0.9% from 0.5%. The spread of estimates runs from 1.4% to 0.5%.
Several components of GDP are expected to add to the higher revision.
  • Retail sales ex-autos were revised higher to 0.4% from 0.2% for March
  • Durable goods held some upward revisions for March though they mainly pointed to the consumer end
  • Factory orders were also revised higher which is likely to give a boost to the manufacturing sector
  • The trade deficit improved to 40.4bn from 47.0bn
The consumer is expected to add to higher growth with consumption expected to rise to 2.1% from the flash 1.9%, though that would still be down from Q4's 2.4%.

As always there's lots to look out for in the details, business investment, imports/exports, PCE prices etc.

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