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Friday, June 03, 2016

June Fed hike odds plummet after non-farm payrolls miss

The Fed really knows how to set 'em up and knock 'em down.
In early May the market has buried the idea of a June rate hike but hawkish FOMC Minutes and commentary from Fed members but it firmly back on the table. But the Fed misread the economic situation and now weak jobs numbers have virtually killed the chance of a June hike.
The 38K jobs created was likely skewed lower by a strike of 39,000 Verizon workers but that in now way can explain the huge miss on the 160K jobs expected. In addition, revisions cut 59K jobs from the March and April reports.
The Fed funds futures market had priced in a 20% chance of a June hike before the report but that's immediately fallen to 6% and it's effectively 0% now.
July is still on the table but it's fallen to close to 40% after hitting 53% yesterday.

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