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Friday, September 02, 2016

US August non-farm payrolls +151K vs +180K expected

  • Prior 255K. Revised to
  • Unemployment rate 4.9% vs 4.8% exp. Prior 4.9%
  • Average hourly earnings 0.1% m/m vs 0.2% exp m/m.
  • Prior average hourly earnings 0.3%
  • Avg hourly earnings 2.4% y/y vs 2.5% exp
  • Participation rate 62.8% vs 62.8% prior
  • Two month net revision: -1K
  • Private payrolls 126K vs +180K exp
  • Avg weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.5 exp
  • Prior avg weekly hours 34.5 (revised to 34.4)
  • Manufacturing payrolls -14K vs -3K exp
The headline number is just low enough to be a small disappointment but tack on the weak wage growth, weak hours worked and the rise in unemployment and it's a substantial disappointment.
A September rate hike is almost surely off the table now. The numbers needed to be nearly perfect between now and Sept 21.
 
 

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