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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

What's priced in for the FOMC decision

The second day of FOMC meetings will begin shortly and the Federal Reserve will get down to deciding on rates and communication.

The Fed funds futures market is pricing in the certainty that rates will go up to at least a range of 0.50% to 0.75% and a small but significant (8%) chance of a surprise 50 bps hike to 0.75% to 1.00%.
If a 50 bps hike doesn't come today, the market sees a 13.7% chance it comes at the next meeting on Feb 1 and that rises to nearly 30% by March 15.

The trajectory higher continues throughout the next year.

In our opinion rate will NOT be hiked, the market has already done that for the FED...we shall see.

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