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Friday, June 23, 2017

Canada May CPI 1.3% vs +1.5% y/y expected

  • Prior was +1.6%
  • Index at 130.5 vs 130.4 prior
  • Prices up 0.1% m/m
  • Ex-food and energy +0.2% m/m
Core measures:
  • Common +1.3% vs 1.3% y/y prior
  • Trim +1.2% vs 1.3% y/y prior
  • Median +1.5% vs 1.6% y/y prior
...about that July BOC rate hike.

It looks like a 0.7% m/m drop in transportation costs was a trade, although that was offset by a 0.6% monthly rise in food costs. Overall, goods inflation was down 0.4% in the month while services inflation rose 0.4%.
The services rise might indicate to the BOC that wage pressures are on the rise but the overall headline and core numbers are very hard to ignore. The 58% chance of a July 12 hike that's priced in has got to go to zero.

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