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Thursday, August 03, 2017

Trump could actually have something to celebrate: The initial Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast for Q3 is 4.0%

If Trump actually got a quarter of 4% growth, the tweetstorm would be epic.
The initial forecast for Q3 from the Atlanta Fed is +4.0% in the popular GDPNow model.
"The GDPNow model projects inventory investment will contribute 1.13 percentage points to real GDP growth in the third quarter; inventory investment subtracted 0.02 percentage points from growth in the second quarter."

For Q2, the final Atlanta Fed estimate was 2.8% compared to the 2.6% reading. At the start of the quarter they had forecast 4.3%. Trump went on to tout how great growth was:
"We have a GDP, on Friday - it got very little mention, although I guess in the business areas it did. But it got, I think, very little mention. 2.6 is a number that nobody thought they'd see for a long period of time. Remember, I was saying we will hit three at some point in the not-too-distant future, and everybody smiled and they laughed and they thought we'd be at one. And 2.6 is an unbelievable number, announced on Friday."
The Q3 consensus is still fuzzy, but it's around 2.3%.

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