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Friday, September 29, 2017

Fed's Harker: GDP continues just as we expected

He adds:
  • GDP running slightly above trend
  • Labor markets feeling really tight
  • Best estimate shows GDP down 100bp this quarter
  • GDP will bounce back from the hurricanes in 4Q
  • We are starting to see some wage pressures
  • Low growth in wages may be due to shift in who is employed, 
  • We are running below our 2% inflation target
  • Inflation is the one area that gives me pause
  • For the average American low inflation is not a problem but there are risks for monetary policy. 
  • Our work showing we're overstating inflation is persuasive
  • Pausing on the Fed Funds rate path is appropriate
  • Today's PCE print was weak

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