As long as the war is in Israel alone it doesn't matter for the wider world . If it ends up spilling out of it, expect oil to go through the roof.
1970s was a tumultuous time and one (very big) reason was the middle eastern and the fact that Gulf states stopped producing oil which was half if not more of the reason why the West and especially the US had an inflation crisis.
Energy prices is the most important aspect of *felt* inflation and there is very little that central banks can do about it. The 1970s is often thought as a disproof of the Phillips curve, but in fact it is a disproof that most of anything else matters more than oil/energy prices.
Oil/energy prices are moved by politics.
The crisis of 2022 happened because of background failure between one energy producer and the western world.
And now we are at the start of the 2nd big failure. If this takes and oil is again back at $150s we're f@cked.
Basically we'd be getting a cycle of recessions similar to the 1970s...
As it turns out the US having a competent administration ensures stability for the rest of the world. The fact that an incompetent fool was placed as president means/meant that a period of continuous crises have started.
And there sits Ukraine one bomb away from a major escalation.
Good luck Fall guy Joe Biden you're gonna need it.
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